Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks.
Iran is demanding that the airstrikes stop before it entertains cease-fire discussions and wants firm guarantees that it won’t be attacked again if it agrees to stop the fight, Arab diplomats said. It also wants reparations for damages and is hoping to get U.S. forces to disengage from the region.
The demands are part of a broader public expression of confidence—whether real or feigned—in recent days.
After nearly two weeks of intense American and Israeli airstrikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, sank much of the Iranian navy and hit its missile sites, Iran’s leadership appears to be firmly in control and capable of landing blows against its neighbors.
Its military continues to score hits on targets around the region, including a number of tankers and cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of world oil shipments. The attacks are aimed at driving oil prices higher and have succeeded in spiking benchmark prices above $100 a barrel for a period.
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first statement since being selected to replace his father, vowed to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Iranian officials believe President Trump is feeling the heat from global markets and said their leaders aren’t interested in surrendering. They have told Arab diplomats that any deal would have to guarantee safety for all, or there would be safety for none.
That high-risk, escalatory strategy is aimed at deterring future attacks on a regime that feels its survival is in acute danger. The country’s hard-line leaders aren’t likely to quit until they feel their point has been heard, which could herald a dragged-out conflict even after the U.S. decides it is ready to wrap things up.
“Starting a war is easy, but ending it won’t happen with a few tweets,” top national security official Ali Larijani said on social media Thursday. “We will not let you off until you accept your mistake and pay the price for it.”
The U.S. and Israel haven’t yet shown any interest in reaching a deal, Arab diplomats said. While the U.S. has listened to the various outreaches, Trump said he wants Iran’s unconditional surrender or the collapse of its fighting ability, which he has said could be close as American attacks destroy its military. Israel has said it is still looking for Iran to capitulate, the diplomats said. Iran has said it has no interest in negotiating with Israel.
The conflict has alarmed Gulf Arab states that have suffered strikes on their energy facilities, airports, military bases and residential areas. The fighting has hurt their oil sales and is threatening hard-won reputations as oases of calm that are safe for foreign investment.
Efforts to bring the combatants to the table have been continuing since the conflict began Feb. 28 and picked up early this week with a fresh round of calls initiated by Saudi Arabia, which is concerned about escalating attacks on energy infrastructure, the diplomats said.
Efforts are now focused on convincing the U.S., Israel and Iran to enter into a “period of calm” that could help build confidence for an actual cease-fire.
The 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. in June inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and demonstrated the regime’s inability to fend off attacks. The war stopped only when Trump declared there would be no more strikes. In response, Iran simply ordered its armed forces to halt strikes on Israel.
Iran’s leaders decided that was a strategic mistake that left the country weaker and invited future attacks. This time, it has told mediators that it would only accept a cease-fire with solid guarantees it won’t be attacked again.
Tehran floated having Russia act as a guarantor of such a deal, one Iranian diplomat said. Ultimately, the Islamic Republic hopes to push America to disengage from the region, he said.
“The only way to end this war,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said late Wednesday on social media, “is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm int’l guarantees against future aggression.”
None of those terms are likely to be acceptable to the U.S., which is still concerned about Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, or Israel, which considers Iran a mortal enemy.
But Iran has demonstrated that it can hold at risk its Gulf neighbors—and by extension oil markets—with a few drone strikes, something it can likely keep up for a long period.
“The enemy has a vote,” said Assaf Orion, the former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military. “I don’t think there is a high probability they will surrender.”
“They are playing for time,” he said.
Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com
