The US-Israeli conflict with Iran that has rattled the entire Gulf region and sent ripples across the world is not just what meets the eye. It stems from issues between the sides that have existed since time immemorial, but most recently the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Palestinian militant outfit Hamas – an Iranian proxy.
The conflict sparked by Iran’s retaliation to the February 28 US-Israeli strikes has targeted the entire Gulf which houses American bases – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The drone and missile exchange since then has so far killed hundreds, cramped down airspaces, hit glittery buildings of ‘safe’ cities Dubai and Abu Dhabi and choked the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to global markets and transports a major chunk of world’s crude oil from oil-rich Gulf countries. Track latest updates Iran-US war here
Ships on the critical energy route Strait of Hormuz, that carries roughly one-fifth or 20 per cent of global oil and gas trade, have been targeted by projectiles fired by Iran and allies – informally known as the Axis of Resistance.
What is the Axis of Resistance?
The Axis of Resistance is an informal, Iran-led coalition with a common objective of resisting anti-Western and anti-Israel actors in the Middle East. The Axis mainly comprises Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas/PIJ in Palestine, Houthi forces in Yemen, and various Iraqi militias.
While Hezbollah is a Shia Muslim political party and militant group based in Lebanon and has emerged as a dominant force in the country, Houthis of Yemen is known as a Zaydi Shia movement that has been fighting Yemen’s Sunni-majority government since 2004. These groups back the Hamas, a Palestinian militant outfit, and the Palestinian cause centered around ending Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
All of the above together have been fighting the Israeli offensive on Gaza that was triggered by the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack in Israel in which over 1200 people were killed and more than 250 were taken to Gaza as hostages.
Since the Israeli war on Gaza began, Houthis have been intermittently targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea since and Gulf of Aden in late 2023 using missiles, drones, and explosive boats, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel during the Gaza war.
What happened on October 7
Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that is designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the United States (US), infiltrated from the Gaza Strip into bordering areas in Israel under what the outfit termed ‘Operation Al Aqsa Flood’.
Hamas men infiltrated into Israel in vehicles like pickup trucks, boats, and even with motorised paragliders to breach the security barrier and attack Israeli towns, residents, and military posts.
In this attack, nearly 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals were killed, including 815 civilians. In addition, 251 Israelis and foreigners were taken as hostage by Hamas into Gaza, with the stated goal to force Israel to release Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
The October 7 attack stemmed from long-running issue between the occupation of Gaza and the restrictions over Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount which is sacred to Jews as well as Muslims. Gaza is governed by Hamas, which says it acts to defend Palestinian rights and Muslim holy sites such as Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem.
For Jews, the Temple Mount hill where the Al Aqsa mosque lies is significant as it is believed to be the spot where the First and Second Jewish Temples once stood. It is considered the holiest place in Judaism.
Meanwhile, Al-Aqsa Mosque for Muslims is the third holiest site in Islam, linked to the Prophet Muhammad’s Night Journey.
The long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians over access to the holy site, custodianship of which is with Jordan, saw a flashpoint in 2023 after Israeli far-right minister Ben Gvir’s visit to Al Aqsa mosque. The Hamas named its October 7 action ‘Operation Al Aqsa Flood’, seemingly referencing to the access and control conflicts.
Israel and Iran, the 2024 turning point
Until the post-October 7 Israeli offensive in Gaza, Iran and Israel had mostly refrained from directly attacking each other. It all changed in April 2024 when Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel, firing over 300 missiles and attack drones. Israel, working with a US-led international coalition, intercepted much of the incoming fire.
Iran said the strikes were in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on earlier that month.
The April 2024 Iranian strikes on Israel escalated the tensions between them that till then were not directly confronted and led to multiple fiery exchanged that resulted in key casualties, mostly for Iran and allies.
Iran, on October 1, 2024, launched a second direct attack on Israel with missiles in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike in September in Lebanon’s Beirut. In this, Iran also included revenge for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader of the Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack in July that year.
Israel, in October 2025, openly attacked Iran for the first time, striking air defense systems and sites associated with its missile programme.
Key dates in Israel-Iran conflict
April 14, 2024 — Iran launches an unprecedented direct attack on Israel, firing over 300 missiles and attack drones. Israel, working with a US-led international coalition, intercepts much of the incoming fire.
April 19, 2024 — A suspected Israeli strike hits an air defense system by an airport in Isfahan, Iran.
July 31, 2024 — Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, is assassinated during a visit to Tehran after the inauguration of reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel later takes responsibility for the assassination.
September 27, 2024 — An Israeli airstrike kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.
October 1, 2024 — Iran launches its second direct attack on Israel, though a US-led coalition and Israel shoot down most of the missiles.
October 16, 2024 — Israel kills Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Gaza Strip.
October 26, 2024 — Israel openly attacks Iran for the first time, striking air defense systems and sites associated with its missile programme.
(taken from AFP news agency)
Enters Donald Trump
While Israel and Iranian allies have been intermittently fighting in the October 7, 2023, flashpoint of the deep-seated Israel-Gaza conflict, the direct confrontation with Iran officially began in 2024. Then Donald Trump made re-entry to the White House as US President for the second time, with the long-pending aim of stopping Iran from pursuing its so-called nuclear ambitions.
Israel and the US see Iran’s nuclear programme as a potential existential threat, fearing Tehran could develop nuclear weapons. This has been a core reason for sanctions, sabotage operations, and military planning.
The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has joined or supported strikes on Iranian targets, particularly those linked to nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, further internationalising the conflict.
After returning to the White House, Iran’s then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February 2025 said proposed nuclear talks with the US are “not intelligent, wise or honorable.”
In March 7, 2025, Trump said he sent a letter to Khamenei seeking a new nuclear deal with Tehran. In April 2025, Trump announced the US and Iran will hold direct talks in Oman. Iran said these will be indirect talks, but confirmed the meeting. Five rounds of nuclear talks happened but remained inconclusive.
Iran in June signalled it won’t accept a US proposal over the nuclear programme.
Days later, The Board of Governors at the International Atomic Energy Agency said it found Iran in noncompliance with its nuclear obligations. Iran responded by announcing it has built and will activate a third nuclear enrichment facility.
The next day, June 13, 2025, Israel launched its war against Iran. Over 12 days, it hit nuclear and military sites, as well as other government installations in the operation that said to have wiped out key Iranian officials.
On June 22, the US intervened in the war, attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.
Iran next day responded to the US attack by targeting a military base in Qatar used by American troops, causing limited damage. On June 24, Trump announced a ceasefire in the war.
Things de-escalated only to spiral again this year in January when anti-government protests in Iran prompted Trump’s warning of intervention. The protests broke out in late December last year in two major markets in downtown Tehran after the Iranian rial plunges to a record low – 1.42 million rials to one US dollar – sparking concerns over the economy, compounding inflationary pressure and pushing up the prices of food as well as other daily necessities.
On January 3, the then Supreme Leader Khamenei said “rioters must be put in their place,” in what is seen as a green light for security forces to begin more aggressively putting down the demonstrations.
Following a call from Iran’s exiled crown prince, thousands took to the streets in nationwide protests. The government responded with a communication blackout which included cutting internet and international telephone calls in a bid to cut off the country of 85 million from outside influence. An ensuing security force crackdown reportedly killed thousands and saw tens of thousands getting detained. Trump warned against the crackdown on protesters and their execution.
The back-and-forth stretched till February 26 when Iran and the US held another round of talks in Geneva as America assembled the largest fleet of warplanes and aircraft in the Mideast in decades.
On February 28, the joint US-Israeli on Iran strikes took place, eliminating Khamenei.
Where are Iran’s friends?
Iran positions itself as the leading Shia power, while many of Israel’s regional rivals and allies belong to the broader Sunni political sphere. Though the conflict is largely geopolitical, the Shia-Sunni divide shapes alliances and narratives in the region.
Despite maintaining long-standing diplomatic, economic, and military ties with countries like Turkey, China, Russia and some others, Iran finds itself largely isolated as it faces attacks from the US and Israel. Many of these relationships were transactional or strategic, focused on trade, energy, or regional influence, rather than firm military commitments.
Iran’s network of proxy militias – including Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and Iraqi armed groups – has limited capacity to influence the war, and state partners have mostly offered words rather than direct support. Even Russia and China, longtime allies, are avoiding direct military involvement, prioritising diplomacy and economic ties over confrontation.
Countries like Turkey maintain relations for geographic or economic reasons, but are careful to avoid getting dragged into the conflict.
The weakening Axis
Iran’s weakened proxy groups largely stayed on the sidelines as their sponsor came under direct attack last year. So far in the latest fighting, they’ve done much the same.
“It’s very much about survival” for Hezbollah and the other Iran-backed groups, Associated Press news agency quoted as saying Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow focused on the Middle East at Chatham House, a British think tank. “We don’t know where this will end up.”
Mansour noted that over time, the Axis had become less driven by top-down orders from Iran, and the groups have become more autonomous. “And survival to them is based on calculations that aren’t necessarily about Iran’s survival.”
Since Israel and the US launched a barrage of strikes on Iran Saturday, Tehran’s allies and proxies in the region have had a minimal role in the response.
Lebanon’s powerful militant group Hezbollah had long been considered Iran’s first line of defence in case of a war with Israel, believed to have some 1,50,000 rockets and missiles. The group’s former leader, Nasrallah, once claimed of having 1,00,000 fighters.
After October 7, the group launched rockets across the border to Israel in support of its ally Hamas. That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling, and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war in the fall of 2024. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of the militant group’s arsenal, before a US-negotiated ceasefire nominally halted that conflict last November.
Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes. Hezbollah was further weakened when rebels overthrew the regime of key ally Syrian President Bashar Assad, cutting off a major supply route for Iranian weapons.
As a result of the weakening axis, Iran faces the war largely without concrete external backing, shedding light on the limits of its alliances and the transactional nature of its foreign policy.
